Without a Leave Alliance - a Remain Wales?

We all know that Wales voted to leave the European Union in 2016. But then, following a successful pact between Remain parties, the Lib Dems took Leave-supporting Brecon & Radnorshire in a by-election earlier this year. This was despite the Conservatives going into the by-election with a whopping 8,000 vote majority. The Remain vote benefitted from an alliance between Remain supporting parties. And, of course, Leave struggled and then failed, because the Leave vote was split between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.

Following on from the success of the Brecon & Radnorshire Alliance, the Lib Dems, the Greens, and Plaid Cymru have announced that they will ally again for the coming general election.  The alliance will impact 11 seats in Wales.

Tragically for Leave, its split vote could result in a Remain supporting cohort of MPs representing Wales in the next parliament.

  • A review of the data shows that of the 7 Welsh seats the Tories currently hold, 5 of them could be lost with small swings of below 5%.
  • Then there are 10 seats the Tories could gain with swing of 7% and below; do-able - but only if the Leave vote is not split.
  • And if the Brexit Party would focus on its most winnable seats, some of these are in Wales. There are some solid Leave supporting seats that have recently been all but unwinnable for the Tories. If Brexit Party activists piled in to these; if Tories focused their firepower elsewhere, could Leave win? Only if we work together.

To see our data sources or to download data go here. To look at all constituency data go here.

Welsh Constituencies